You are here: Home SOER 2010 Climate change mitigation - Outlook to 2020 (SOER 2010)
The European environment – state and outlook 2010

The European environment – state and outlook 2010

SEIS conference

Logo conference Sharing Environmental Information

« December 2014 »
December
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031
 
Document Actions

Climate change mitigation - Outlook to 2020 (SOER 2010)

Projected emissions of greenhouse gases in Belgium over Kyoto-period 2020, 2050, etc.

Key message

Under these policies, greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium (excluding LULUCF) are expected to increase by 3% in 2020. Main factors explaining the significant increase after 2010 are the assumed increased electricity demand combined with the nuclear phase out and increased production in industrial sectors producing process emissions.

The ‘with measures’ scenario indicates the likely evolution of greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium under current policies and measures. This scenario includes all policies and measures adopted at the end of 2008 and described in the National Climate Plan of Belgium for the period 2009 – 2012[1]. Under these policies, greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium (excluding LULUCF) are expected to increase from 145.7 Mton CO2-eq in the base year to 150.8 Mton CO2-eq in 2020 (+3 %). Main factors explaining the significant increase after 2010 are the assumed increased electricity demand combined with the nuclear phase-out[2] and increased production in industrial sectors producing process emissions.

Uncertainties regarding exogenous variables such as economic growth, climate conditions, electricity imports exist and their level influences the resulting greenhouse gas emissions, notably in the sectors covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS).

The ‘additional measures’ scenario presented in fifth national communication[3] under the UNFCCC showed an additional reduction effect of 11.3 Mton in 2020, reducing the total CO2-eq in the ‘with additional measures’ scenario to 139.5 Mton CO2-eq.

With the approval of the National Allocation Plan for the period 2008–2012 under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the Belgian Kyoto target is translated into a target for the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. This target equals 76.3 Mton CO2-eq. The average non-ETS emissions level in the Kyoto-period is estimated to be 79.9 Mton CO2-eq or 3.6 Mton CO2-eq above the annual target. Belgium will make use of the Kyoto Mechanisms to cover these remaining emissions.

 


[2] Since the elaboration of this scenario, the federal government has decided to postpone the closure of 3 nuclear power plants, while remaining in the framework of the nuclear phase out foreseen by the law of January 31, 2003.

[3] Belgium’s fifth national communication. Climate change. http://www.climat.be/IMG/pdf/NC5_EN.pdf

 

Three policy scenario’s with increasing levels of ambition and their effect until 2030 in the Flemish Region.

Key message

If current environmental legislation would remain unchanged, greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 31% in the period 2006-2030. However, with additional measures a significant reduction is possible far beyond current European ambitions concerning climate change.

Figures

Figure 7: The production of renewable electricity (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).

Detail of the production of renewable electricity according to the reference scenario (REF), Europe scenario (EUR) and visionary scenario (VISI), (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).
Data source
http://www.milieurapport.be/upload/main/MIRA_compleet_TW.pdf
Figure 7: The production of renewable electricity (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).
Fullscreen image Original link

Figure 8: Gross domestic electricity consumption (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).

Gross domestic electricity consumption according to the reference scenario (REF), Europe scenario (EUR) and visionary scenario (VISI), (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).
Data source
http://www.milieurapport.be/upload/main/MIRA_compleet_TW.pdf
Figure 8: Gross domestic electricity consumption  (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).
Fullscreen image Original link

Figure 9: Netto greenhouse gas emissions (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).

Netto greenhouse gas emissions according to the reference scenario (REF), Europe scenario (EUR) and visionary scenario (VISI), (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).
Data source
http://www.milieurapport.be/upload/main/MIRA_compleet_TW.pdf
Figure 9: Netto greenhouse gas emissions (Flemish Region, 2006-2030).
Fullscreen image Original link

Beyond Kyoto

The Environmental Outlook 2030 for Flanders[3] investigates how the quality of the environment might develop in the Flemish Region and what impact policy could have on this. The future developments have been depicted using three policy scenarios with increasing levels of ambition:

  • The reference scenario (REF) investigates how far the current environmental policy reaches.

  • The Europe scenario (EUR) investigates what may be required to realise the European ambitions concerning climate change, air quality and water quality in the medium term. >

  • The visionary scenario (VISI) investigates how the environment may be safeguarded for present and future generations.>

In the reference scenario, the gross domestic energy consumption will be 13 % higher in 2030 than in 2006. The total emissions of greenhouse gases will increase by 12 % in 2020 and even by 31 % by 2030 compared to 2006. In 2006 the share of renewable energy in the gross end consumption was only 0.8 %. If the policy remains unchanged this will increase to 4 % by 2020 and 6 % by 2030. The use of renewable energy sources is beneficial both for the security of the supply and the emissions of greenhouse gasses.

In the Europe scenario, the gross domestic energy consumption continues to fluctuate around the 2006 level. As a result the Flemish Region cannot fulfil the energy efficiency target of a 20 % increase by 2020 in relation to an unchanged policy. Approximately 9 % of the gross end consumption of energy will be from renewable sources of energy by 2020. Belgium had a target of 13 % imposed by Europe. The share of green electricity in the electricity production will grow to 22 %. There is sufficient potential for renewable sources of energy in the Flemish Region to meet the demand. Transport increases the use of biofuels (including from the second generation) and reaches the target of 10 % renewable energy by 2020.

In the visionary scenario, the gross domestic energy consumption falls by 20.6 % by 2020 compared to the reference scenario. As a result, the Flemish Region meets the European energy efficiency target. The proportion of renewable energy in the gross end consumption stagnates at 9.2 % in 2020. The share increases to 26.4 % by 2030. The non-ETS sectors succeed in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 32 % by 2020 and halving them by 2030, compared to 1990. After 2020 the ETS-sectors also succeed in bringing their emissions, through national measures under the 2006 level by 21 %. This decrease must to a great extent be attributed to the energy sector.


[3] http://www.milieurapport.be/nl/publicaties/milieuverkenning-2030/ (Dutch only – English translation expected to be available during May 2010)

 

Direct GHG emissions in the Brussels-Capital Region (1990-2007) and projections until 2020

Key message

The observance of the regional commitment to the Kyoto Protocol in the Brussels-Capital Region risks depending on the temperature between 2008 and 2012.

Figures

Figure 10: Direct GHG emissions in the Brussels-Capital Region (1990-2007) and projections until 2020

Figure 10: Direct GHG emissions in the Brussels-Capital Region (1990-2007) and projections until 2020
Data source
http://documentation.bruxellesenvironnement.be/documents/SEE_completEN_Def_26102010_web.pdf
http://documentatie.leefmilieubrussel.be/documents/SEE_completNL_Def_290910_web.pdf
http://documentation.bruxellesenvironnement.be/documents/SEE_completFR_Def_290910_web.pdf
Figure 10: Direct GHG emissions in the Brussels-Capital Region (1990-2007) and projections until 2020
Fullscreen image Original link

The GHG emissions have been estimated until 2020 by taking into account the policies and measures that have already been implemented or planned and considering various climate scenarios.Modelling is however always complex, as a result of the numerous hypotheses that have to be considered to reflect the specific circumstances prevalent in Brussels.

We can learn from the modelling that for unchanged policies, and given the impending expiry, the observance of the regional obligation with respect to the Kyoto Protocol risks depending on the temperature between 2008 and 2012.

Also worthy of note is the Region's commitment to reduce its GHG's emissions by 30% in 2025, compared to 1990 (Covenant of the Mayors).