Waste - Outlook 2020 (SOER 2010)
Outlook scenario for household waste until 2015 in the Flemish Region.
Maintain a constant waste production in respect to 2000 by innovation and new initiatives (compensating the economic and population growth).
Figure 13: Outlook household waste in the Flemish Region
- Data source
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An outlook scenario doesn’t exist yet for industrial waste. For household waste, OVAM has a model predicting the amounts of household waste until 2015 (Implementation Plan for environmentally responsible household waste management, January 2008). This model is shortly described below. The possible increase in the amounts of household waste due to economic and population growth must be compensated by waste prevention.
The results of the Plan Scenario from the ‘Implementation Plan for environmentally responsible household waste management’ (January 2008) are used as an outlook. It uses 2005 as a reference year and presents scenarios for the period 2005-2015. In this scenario, one takes into account a population growth of 0.3 % and an economic growth of 2 %. The total production of household waste is calculated by assuming an autonomous growth. Organic waste is assumed to grow as fast as the population. The other fractions in household waste grow by 2 % on average, in function of growth in population and economy.
Furthermore, for each fraction tasks for prevention and for the reuse of products are set.
For household waste the goal for selective collection is set at 75 % by 2010. This level is maintained during the rest of the plan period.
In the plan scenarios, the efforts for prevention and selective collection are intensified, expanded and optimised where possible.
The aim is to maintain a constant waste production with regard to 2000, which amounts to 560 kg/inhabitant, by innovation and new initiatives. This is shown in figure 13. This would correspond with a relative decoupling of the amount of household waste and economic growth, as well as population growth.
The amount of household waste for final treatment decreases to 150 kg per inhabitant in 2010. Between 2010 and 2015 the amount of waste for final treatment stagnates around 150 kg/inhabitant.
This decrease in residual waste means that in the period of 2010-2015, an annual average of 921 000 tonne of household waste will go to final treatment, compared to 978 000 tonnes in 2005. The amount of comparable combustible waste of companies, collected by the municipalities, amounts to 860 000 tonnes in 2005. Taking into account a reduction of 15 % of this waste from companies, this quantity decreases to 740 000 tonnes in 2015. Bearing in mind the incineration and pre-treatment facilities at the moment of publication of the Plan Scenario, there will be a shortage of 272 000 to 434 000 tonnes in capacity in 2015. However, nowadays this shortage is already solved. This amount is pre-treated and accordingly becomes highly calorific. It is incinerated in two new installations.
Outlook scenario for household waste until 2020 in the Walloon Region.
In preparation for developing a new plan for 2020 for the Walloon Region, the results of outlook scenarios are expected in late 2010.
The Walloon Region is currently evaluating the results of the different actions carried out under the Walloon Waste Plan 2010 (Plan Wallon des Déchets - horizon 2010 (PWD-2010)), in preparation for developing a new plan for 2020. In this context, various scenarios are being developed, taking into account orientations taken in the new regional policy statement 2009-2014, the population and economic growth, opportunities to develop new treatments, the result of prevention efforts, environmental and social impacts, or the capabilities of the waste management infrastructures. The results of these outlook scenarios are expected in late 2010.
Measurable prevention targets for 2020 in the Brussels-Capital Region.
The fourth Regional Waste Prevention and Management Plan has been recently approved and reinforces the idea of dematerialisation initiated in the third one. It aims to achieve measurable prevention targets of numerous waste streams for 2020.
The available data on wastes produced in the Brussels-Capital Region make it difficult to establish long-term tendencies. It is generally recognised that the quantities of municipal waste produced per inhabitant continue to increase in Europe. To reverse this tendency the regional authorities implement waste prevention and management plan.
The fourth Regional Waste Prevention and Management Plan has been recently approved and reinforces the idea of dematerialisation initiated in the third one. It aims to achieve measurable prevention targets of numerous waste streams for 2020. Those reductions concern specific waste streams (food, paper, superfluous packaging, etc.) and specific segments of the public (households, workers, pupils, …):
- Reduction of 37 kg/inhabitant/year of household waste (targets per streams: food, paper, superfluous packaging, …)
- Reduction of 37 kg/worker/year office waste (targets per stream: food, paper, superfluous packaging, …)
- Reduction of 6,5 kg/pupil/year of school waste (targets per stream: food, paper, superfluous packaging, …)
- Recycling of 50 % municipal waste
- Reduction of 10 % of non-households waste production
- Recycling of 50 % industrial waste
- Recycling of 90 % of construction and demolition waste
The Brussels-Capital Region also participates in the campaign ’-100 kg/inhab/an‘, coordinated by the ACR+, whose objectives are translated in the above mentioned plan.
These efforts are all the more necessary as a strong growth of the population of Brussels is expected for the next decades (+170 000 inhabitants from 2007 to 2020).